End-of-Mission press releases come with statements of IMF workforce groups that put across initial findings after a talk over with to a rustic. The perspectives expressed on this observation are the ones of the IMF workforce and don’t essentially constitute the perspectives of the IMF’s Executive Board. This venture won’t lead to a Board dialogue.

Washington, DC: A workforce group from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led through Mr. Malhar Nabar carried out a digital venture to Uganda from October 31 – November 22, 2022 to speak about development on reforms and the government’ coverage priorities in the context of the mixed moment and 3rd critiques below the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) authorized through the IMF Executive Board on June 28, 2021 for a complete quantity of SDR 722 million (about US$ 1 billion at the time of program approval). The concluding assembly of the venture used to be hung on December 19, 2022.

At the conclusion of the venture, Mr. Nabar issued the following observation:

“IMF workforce have reached settlement with the Ugandan government on a conclusion of the mixed moment and 3rd critiques of the ECF-supported program. The settlement is topic to approval of IMF control and the Executive Board in the coming weeks. Upon of entirety of the Executive Board assessment, Uganda would have get admission to to SDR 180.5 million (identical to about US$ 240 million), bringing the overall IMF monetary improve below the ECF-financed program to SDR 451.25 million (identical to about US$ 625 million).

“Growth is projected at 5.3 % in FY22/23, 0.7 proportion level not up to at the time of the first assessment in March reflecting weaker international call for and the have an effect on of emerging inflation and rates of interest on home call for. Medium-term potentialities stay favorable with oil manufacturing approaching board through FY24/25. Headline inflation is anticipated to upward thrust to eight.3 % this fiscal 12 months because of increased commodity costs and upper imported enter prices and is predicted to say no thereafter reflecting the anticipated easing of commodity value pressures and the have an effect on of economic tightening. Risks to the outlook are increased and come with decrease international enlargement, constantly upper inflation in complicated economies and related tighter international monetary stipulations; an intensification of the Ebola outbreak; and extra common disruptions in task because of local weather trade.

“The Bank of Uganda (BoU) has tightened the coverage charge in contemporary months and introduced its readiness to take suitable motion to include second-round results of upper international costs. Given the broadening of inflation pressures and upside dangers, endured tightening would assist information core inflation again to the goal. Continued alternate charge flexibility is a very powerful surprise absorber and would assist rebuild exterior buffers.

“Revenue-based fiscal consolidation enshrined in the government’ Domestic Revenue Mobilization Strategy stays a very powerful for retaining debt at a sustainable stage and offering much-needed finances for Sustainable Development Goals. To this finish, the government have followed a plan to rationalize inefficient and expensive tax expenditures. Expenditure prioritization will proceed however a small widening of the fiscal deficit this 12 months, relative to the goal set in the first assessment of the ECF, is vital to account for added must improve the prone, together with subsistence families, whilst ultimate fascinated about fiscal consolidation. Uganda’s debt stays sustainable, with a reasonable menace of debt misery.

“The banking sector is well-capitalized, but present vulnerabilities level to the want for endured tracking and strengthening of monetary steadiness. The BoU is bettering its supervisory framework. Implementation of the Safeguards Assessment suggestions will assist solidify independence and the new menace control framework will deal with governance and include dangers.

“Structural reforms stay key to unlocking Uganda’s enlargement attainable. Priorities come with strengthening the anti-corruption framework and the AML/CFT regime, bettering the social protection web, advancing the monetary inclusion schedule, and adapting to local weather trade. The anticorruption schedule is progressing with the Companies Act amended to arrange the floor for the implementation of a really helpful possession sign up permitting well timed get admission to to data. Tools for AML/CFT risk-based supervision for the monetary sector are being advanced and applied. The government revealed data on compliance statistics for asset declarations and on packages to get admission to the declarations, on the Inspectorate of Government’s web site.

“The IMF staff team is grateful to the authorities for the fruitful and constructive discussions and the authorities’ effort to maintain stability in a difficult environment. The staff team met with the Permanent Secretary and Secretary to the Treasury, Mr. Ggoobi; Deputy Governor of the BoU, Mr. Atingi-Ego; and other BoU and senior government officials. Staff also had productive discussions with representatives of the private sector, civil society organizations, and development partners in their usual practice of taking stock of economic conditions and reform priorities.”

Table 1. Uganda: Selected Economic Indicators, FY2020/21-FY2023/24

FY2020/21

FY2021/22

FY2022/23

FY2023/24

Act.

Rev. Prog.

Output

Real GDP Growth (%)

3.5

4.7

5.3

6.0

Prices

Headline Inflation – reasonable (%)

2.5

3.4

8.3

7.2

Core Inflation – reasonable (%)

3.5

3.2

7.5

6.8

Central Government Finances

Revenue and Grants (% of GDP)

14.3

14.1

15.1

15.5

Expenditure (% of GDP)

23.7

21.5

20.2

19.0

Primary Balance (% of GDP)

-6.7

-4.3

-1.8

-0.3

Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)

-9.4

-7.4

-5.1

-3.5

Public Debt (% of GDP)

49.0

50.6

50.9

49.6

Money and Credit

Broad cash (% trade)

8.5

10.0

14.5

12.6